Geoscientists map changes in atmospheric CO2 over past 66 million years

But where does 419 parts per million (ppm) — the current concentration of the greenhouse gas in the atmosphere — fit in Earth’s history?

That’s a question an international community of scientists, featuring key contributions by University of Utah geologists, is sorting out by examining a plethora of markers in the geologic record that offer clues about the contents of ancient atmospheres. Their initial study was published this week in the journal Science, reconstructing CO₂ concentrations going back through the Cenozoic, the era that began with the demise dinosaurs and rise of mammals 66 million years ago.

Glaciers contain air bubbles, providing scientists direct evidence of CO2 levels going back 800,000 years, according to U geology professor Gabe Bowen, one of the study’s corresponding authors. But this record does not extend very deep into the geological past.

“Once you lose the ice cores, you lose direct evidence. You no longer have samples of atmospheric gas that you can analyze,” Bowen said. “So you have to rely on indirect evidence, what we call proxies. And those proxies are tough to work with because they are indirect.”

“Proxies” in the geologic record

These proxies include isotopes in minerals, the morphology of fossilized leaves and other lines of geological evidence that reflect atmospheric chemistry. One of the proxies stems from the foundational discoveries of U geologist Thure Cerling, himself a co-author on the new study, whose past research determined carbon isotopes in ancient soils are indicative of past CO₂ levels.

But the strength of these proxies vary and most cover narrow slices of the past. The research team, called the Cenozoic CO₂ Proxy Integration Project, or CenCO₂PIP, and organized by Columbia University climate scientist Bärbel Hönisch, set out to evaluate, categorize and integrate available proxies to create a high-fidelity record of atmospheric CO₂.

“This represents some of the most inclusive and statistically refined approaches to interpreting CO₂ over the last 66 million years,” said co-author Dustin Harper, a U postdoctoral researcher in Bowen’s lab. “Some of the new takeaways are we’re able to combine multiple proxies from different archives of sediment, whether that’s in the ocean or on land, and that really hasn’t been done at this scale.”

The new research is a community effort involving some 90 scientists from 16 countries. Funded by dozens of grants from multiple agencies, the group hopes to eventually reconstruct the CO₂ record back 540 million years to the dawn of complex life.

At the start of the Industrial Revolution — when humans began burning to coal, then oil and gas to fuel their economies — atmospheric CO₂ was around 280 ppm. The heat-trapping gas is released into the air when these fossil fuels burn.

Looking forward, concentrations are expected to climb up to 600 to 1,000 ppm by the year 2100, depending on the rate of future emissions. It is not clear exactly how these future levels will influence the climate.

But having a reliable map of past CO₂ levels could help scientists more accurately predict what future climates may look like, according to U biology professor William Anderegg, director the U’s Wilkes Center for Climate & Policy.

“This is an incredibly important synthesis and has implications for future climate change as well, particularly the key processes and components of the Earth system that we need to understand to project the speed and magnitude of climate change,” Anderegg said.

Today’s 419 ppm is the highest CO2 in 14 million years

At times in the past when Earth was a far warmer place, levels of CO₂ were much higher than now. Still, the 419 ppm recorded today represents a steep and perhaps dangerous spike and is unprecedented in recent geologic history.

“By 8 million years before present, there’s maybe a 5% chance that CO₂ levels were higher than today,” Bowen said, “but really we have to go back 14 million years before we see levels we think were like today.”

In other words, human activity has significantly altered the atmosphere within the span of a few generations. As a result, climate systems around the globe are showing alarming signs of disruption, such as powerful storms, prolonged drought, deadly heat waves and ocean acidification.

A solid understanding of atmospheric CO₂ variation through geological time is also essential to deciphering and learning from various features of Earth’s history. Changes in atmospheric CO₂ and climate likely contributed to mass extinctions, as well as evolutionary innovations.

During the Cenozoic, for example, long-term declines in CO₂ and associated climate cooling may have driven changes to plant physiology, species competition and dominance, which in turn impacted mammalian evolution.

“A more refined understanding of past trends in CO₂ is therefore central to understanding how modern species and ecosystems arose and may fare in the future,” the study states.