An event unlike any other, Sunday night on the White House’s South Lawn there will be seven UFC fights to feast on.
Politics aside, this should be one of the most bizarre, intriguing and fun events in UFC history.
The Post will be there in full force, and the event is expected to feature a rather star-studded cast of celebrities and politicians in full tow for a highly selective group to watch live in person.
Of note, these fights will be held outside underneath a covering that was built within the last few weeks and could be fought in the rain and definitely in temperatures nearing 90 degrees with high humidity.
All those elements could affect the fighters.
Below, we break down all seven UFC fights on the White House South Lawn with predictions and best bets.
UFC Freedom 250 predictions
Ilia Topuria vs. Justin Gaethje
Unification of the lightweight strap, Ilia Topuria appears to be one of, if not the most powerful, punchers at lower weight classes that we’ve ever seen.
Topuria boasts brutal knockouts of Max Holloway, Alexander Volkanovski, and Charles Oliveira, but what everyone sleeps on is his grappling.
The Spainyard actually came into the UFC as a jiu-jitsu fighter, and he’s extremely capable there. If he wants to go that route; Topuria even submitted grappler Bryce Mitchell in 2022.
Justin Gaethje is a massive underdog, coming in at +390 odds at DraftKings, which I actually think is plenty of respect considering Topuria has literally been untouchable in his career.
If Jon Jones is the Michael Jordan of mixed martial arts, Illia Topuria might be the Kobe Bryant.
I’ll take his moneyline for parlays, and by submission at high odds of +600 at FanDuel, as that would be his path of least resistance.
If you’re more risk-averse, target Topuria wins, and the fight starts Round 2 at +110 at DraftKings.
THE PLAY: Small bet on Ilia Topuria wins by submission (+600, FanDuel) | Topuria wins and fight starts Round 2 (+110, DraftKings)
Alex Pereira vs. Ciryl Gane
Alex Pereira used to fight at 185 pounds; he now weighs 240 pounds and competes two weight classes higher than he was previously.
He battles Ciryl Gane at heavyweight for the interim championship, with Tom Aspinall seemingly rebelling against the promotion and unhappy with Dana White.
Pereira opened at +150 odds when this fight was announced, but they have crashed all the way down to -105 as he’s one of the most popular UFC fighters.
This fight is between two strikers and is a five-round title fight, but oddsmakers are projecting an extended bout that goes Over 2.5 rounds (-160).
That’s fine. I expect Gane to land many kicks and try to point-fight Pereira, but Pereira is a nasty kicker in his own right and is one of the best leg kickers in MMA history.
I’ll take Pereira to win a decision at long odds, but there’s not a ton of value on this fight.
THE PLAY: Pereira by decision (+650, DraftKings)
Sean O’Malley vs. Aiemann Zahabi
Sean O’Malley is America’s biggest star. Aiemann Zahabi is a step back in competition for him.
O’Malley should be able to style on Zahabi on the feet, and while the Canadian has made it clear that he is going to try to grapple here I cannot imagine he’s successful doing so considering the American has been stopping takedowns from Merab Dvalishivili and Song Yadong recently.
Target O’Malley to win moneyline for parlays, but I don’t like his KO or decision prices.
THE PLAY: O’Malley moneyline for parlays
Josh Hokit vs. Derrick Lewis
Thirteen-year age gap between these two, and Derrick Lewis has looked horrific in his recent fights.
Josh Hokit has an elite American collegiate wrestling base, and while he’s undersized compared to Lewis, he should win this easily.
When Lewis loses, he looks non-competitive, as he did last time out. Sign me up for Hokit moneyline in parlays and given it’s a three-round fight, go for him to win a decision.
THE PLAY: Hokit moneyline for parlays | Small bet on Hokit by decision (+837, Kalshi)
Mauricio Ruffy vs. Michael Chandler
No one believes in Michael Chandler in this fight as a +525 underdog. That’s fair, he’s lost three straight five of his last six.
Chandler has become a bit of a punching bag on the feet, but he should know that his only path to victory is wrestling.
We’ve seen Mauricio Ruffy taken down before so I’m not taking a winner here. Instead, I’ll take Chandler to score at least one takedown (0.5, -175).
THE PLAY: Over 0.5 takedowns (-175, DraftKings)
Bo Nickal vs. Kyle Daukaus
Bo Nickal is an elite wrestler, while Kyle Daukaus is a well-rounded improving fighter who has multiple submission wins to his resume.
Daukaus is liable to be taken down and laid on top of by a collegiate star wrestler from Penn State like Nickal — although the sweat and humidity outside gives me concerns about proactive grapplers.
I am not sure who wins this fight, with the most likely outcome being Nickal via grappling.
I’ll target Over 1.5 rounds (-115, theScore Bet)
THE PLAY: Over 1.5 rounds (-115, theScore Bet)
Get the lowdown on the Best USA Sports Betting Sites and Apps
Diego Lopes vs. Steve Garcia
The UFC loves Diego Lopes giving him this spot as the curtain jerker for one of the biggest cards in promotion history.
My issue with Lopes is he’s hittable on the feet when striking. Lopes is powerful in his own right and has a good jiu-jitsu base, but he doesn’t really use it unless forced to and Steve Garcia is never looking to get takedowns.
I think Garcia is a nightmare matchup for many in the UFC at featherweight and I’ve seen too many moments where Lopes has struggled for long moments in the octagon.
Lopes pulled a rabit out of his hat when he defeated Jean Silva last September.
I think this is a war, but a longer fight that does not end in the first round. I lean toward Garcia as a slight underdog.
THE PLAY: Fight goes the distance (+194, FanDuel) | Over 1.5 rounds (-130, Bet365) Garcia by decision (+525, Caesars Sportsbook)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Erich Richter is a brazilian jiu-jitsu blue belt but he has a black belt in MMA betting. During the football season he’s showcased massive profits at The Post in the player prop market the last two seasons. While constantly betting long shots, his return on investment is 30.15 percent since 2022.
